In my April blog, I reported an update on violent crime in Chicago from January 2001 through March 2018. This is a continuation of analysis I’ve regularly conducted, born of concern for the staggering 50+% increase in Chicago homicides in 2016 from 2015, along with an only slightly less disturbing 20+% jump in 2016 overall violent crime. Sadly, these developments provide grist for Chicago critics, yet followed a steady decline in crime starting in the 1990’s and affirmed by hard data starting in 2001.
I download the crime data several times a week, submitting them to R wrangling processes. The data are a week in arrears and depict slightly inflated figures. Once the curated data are in place, I perform simple analyses using queries and frequencies, ultimately visualizing the results.
If Chicago gets a grade of F for its 2016 crime, 2017 would be given a D — a noticeable improvement, but still a long way to go. And the first six and half months in 2018 grade out to C, again steadily better, but still not where they need to be. To earn a B, levels will have to return to those in 2015; an A will only be attained when levels surpass the lows from modern reporting.
What follows are a series of tables and graphs delineating the trends in Chicago homicide and violent crime from 2001-2018. Data for January through the middle of July are used to forecast final 2018 figures. The tools include Microsoft Open R version 3.4.4 along with Jupyterlab Beta Release Series Version 0.32.1.