USDA increases meat production outlooks

The USDA increased its 2018 red meat and poultry production outlooks.

Beef production was up 25 million pounds at 27.15 billion, with an increase in the cow slaughter, while the annual price range was steady to $1 per hundredweight lower at $114 to $117, with the USDA expecting lower cash prices to continue in the third quarter. The USDA left imports and per capita consumption unchanged, while raising exports slightly to 3.07 billion pounds.

The pork projection was 30 million pounds higher at 26.745 billion, because of an expected faster kill pace in the third quarter and increased the average price range by $1 to $45 to $46, anticipating better third quarter prices ahead of an end of the year slide as market ready numbers rise. Pork imports and exports were unchanged on the month, with a fractionally higher per capita consumption estimate, up 0.1 pounds to 51.8.

The broiler chicken production estimate was up 45 million pounds on the month at 42.495 billion, because of expected weight increases and recent hatchery numbers, and raised the price outlook to $1.05 to $1.13 per pound, anticipating continued higher prices through the end of the year. The USDA lowered imports to 127 million pounds, raised exports to 840 million, and left per capita consumption unchanged.

Turkey production was slightly higher at 5.942 billion pounds, with prices and imports unchanged, exports lower at 300 million pounds and per capita consumption a little higher at 16.2 pounds.

The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out August 10th.

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